Author + information
- Received December 6, 2016
- Revision received January 18, 2017
- Accepted January 25, 2017
- Published online February 5, 2018.
- Martin Bødtker Mortensen, MD, PhDa,∗ (, )
- Erling Falk, MD, DMSca,
- Dong Li, MDb,
- Khurram Nasir, MD, MPHc,d,e,
- Michael J. Blaha, MD, MPHe,
- Veit Sandfort, MDf,
- Carlos Jose Rodriguez, MD, MPHg,
- Pamela Ouyang, MD, MBBSh and
- Matthew Budoff, MDb
- aDepartment of Cardiology, Aarhus University Hospital, Aarhus, Denmark
- bDivision of Cardiology, Los Angeles Biomedical Research Institute at Harbor-UCLA, University of California Los Angeles, Torrance, California
- cCenter for Healthcare Advancement and Outcomes, Baptist Health South Florida, Miami, Florida
- dDepartment of Epidemiology, Robert Stempel College of Public Health and Department of Medicine, Herbert Wertheim College of Medicine, Florida International University, Florida
- eThe Johns Hopkins Ciccarone Center for the Prevention of Heart Disease, Baltimore, Maryland
- fRadiology and Imaging Sciences, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland
- gDivision of Public Health Sciences, Department of Epidemiology and Prevention, Wake Forest School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, North Carolina
- hThe John Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland
- ↵∗Address for correspondence:
Dr. Martin Bødtker Mortensen, Department of Cardiology, Aarhus University Hospital, Palle Juul Jensens Boulevard 99, Aarhus N, Jylland 8200, Denmark.
Objectives This study sought to determine whether coronary artery calcium (CAC) could be used to optimize statin allocation among individuals for whom trial-based evidence supports efficacy of statin therapy.
Background Recently, allocation of statins was proposed for primary prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) based on proven efficacy from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of statin therapy, a so-called trial-based approach.
Methods The study used data from MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) with 5,600 men and women, 45 to 84 years of age, and free of clinical ASCVD, lipid-lowering therapy, or missing information for risk factors at baseline examination.
Results During 10 years’ follow-up, 354 ASCVD and 219 hard coronary heart disease (CHD) events occurred. Based on enrollment criteria for 7 RCTs of statin therapy in primary prevention, 73% of MESA participants (91% of those >55 years of age) were eligible for statin therapy according to a trial-based approach. Among those individuals, CAC = 0 was common (44%) and was associated with low rates of ASCVD and CHD (3.9 and 1.7, respectively, per 1,000 person-years). There was a graded increase in event rates with increasing CAC score, and in individuals with CAC >100 (27% of participants) the rates of ASCVD and CHD were 18.9 and 12.7, respectively. Consequently, the estimated number needed to treat (NNT) in 10 years to prevent 1 event varied greatly according to CAC score. For ASCVD events, the NNT was 87 for CAC = 0 and 19 for CAC >100. For CHD events, the NNT was 197 for CAC = 0 and 28 for CAC >100.
Conclusions Most MESA participants qualified for trial-based primary prevention with statins. Among the individuals for whom trial-based evidence supports efficacy of statin therapy, CAC = 0 and CAC >100 were common and associated with low and high cardiovascular risks, respectively. This information may guide shared decision making aimed at targeting evidence-based statins to those who are likely to benefit the most.
This research was supported by National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute contracts HHSN268201500003I, N01-HC-95159, N01-HC-95160, N01-HC-95161, N01-HC-95162, N01-HC-95163, N01-HC-95164, N01-HC-95165, N01-HC-95166, N01-HC-95167, N01-HC-95168, and N01-HC-95169; and The National Center for Research Resources (NCRR) grants UL1-TR-000040 and UL1-TR-001079. Dr. Nasir is a consultant for Regeneron; a member of the Quest Diagnostic advisory board; and has received honoraria from Regeneron and Quest Diagnostic. All other authors have reported that they have no relationships relevant to the contents of this paper to disclose.
- Received December 6, 2016.
- Revision received January 18, 2017.
- Accepted January 25, 2017.
- 2018 American College of Cardiology Foundation